Iran and the "Axis of the East"!

Following the events of September 11, 2001, the American imagination crafted a political discourse that became a pivotal tool for translating security concepts into practical policy. After the Cold War, the United States was able to deepen the political consciousness regarding the enemy (the "axis of evil") and the "war on terror," both of which are political and international components. Initially, the axis consisted of Iraq, North Korea, and Iran, and Western public opinion was shaped around the necessity of eliminating them. Washington successfully mobilized public opinion, the media, and elites toward this strategic objective. Today, Washington seeks to redefine the "axis of evil" and expand its circle to include the world's most totalitarian regimes (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran). It is currently working on establishing a general framework for managing competition and containing threats. In this new axis (the "axis of the East," as it is called), Iran is considered the weakest link. Its low cost to Russia and China, as demonstrated in the Ukrainian war, is evident in the transfer of Iranian technology, drones, and missiles to Russia. In exchange for Russian and Chinese political and sometimes technical support, Iran offers its services in this field, which is precisely what Russia needs now. Washington views Iran's role as marginal, merely a tool in the hands of the major nuclear powers seeking to expand their influence in the Middle East. If Washington truly intends to undermine this axis, Iran would be the weakest link, according to this perception. The United States cannot risk a nuclear war with China, Russia, or even North Korea. Therefore, the logical target in its pressure policy is Iran. The United States has pursued two paths to undermine Iran's role in this emerging axis. The first was containment, which led to a rapprochement that produced the 2015 nuclear agreement under the Obama administration, but it did not last long. The second is the maximum pressure policy adopted by Trump to cripple Iran's economic, military, and technological capabilities and prevent it from playing an effective role in this new axis. Washington seeks to neutralize its historical adversary and send a harsh message to China and Russia that an alliance with them would be extremely costly. Removing Iran from the "axis of the East" is Washington's current strategic objective. The failure of the Iraq and Afghanistan experiences has led American policymakers to rule out regime change in Iran, as it would come at a heavy price in terms of human lives and logistics. Furthermore, there is no guarantee of establishing a pro-Washington state on the ruins of the Islamic Republic, as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, where the American presence is unwelcome. In a related context, the fall of the Islamic Republic would pose regional risks to Washington's allies in the Gulf due to the resulting power vacuum. It would also complicate the balance of power in the region. Therefore, the United States believes that applying maximum pressure and restricting Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities and regional influence, without resorting to regime change, is the most effective approach in dealing with Iran. The recent transformations in the region after October 7th have directly impacted the stereotypical image of Iran. From a power that was difficult to contain, it has become a weak link. This equation has imposed strategic repercussions on Iran, requiring it to reassess its calculations, moving beyond its usual propaganda. It must redefine its strategic role in accordance with history and geography, and it must curb its excessive engagement with China and Russia, otherwise it will remain in the Western imagination as a "weak link" in the nuclear "axis of the East".